AGP Executive Report

Mining & Industry Planning: Serbia has started the spatial planning process for the Cukaru Peki and Malka Golaja mining and metallurgical complex, with a 12-month draft plan deadline funded by Serbia Zijin Mining and designed to enable direct implementation via location conditions. Energy Projects: Serbia’s Nis gas power plant push is moving ahead: planning documentation harmonization has begun, with the EPS–SOCAR joint venture shareholders’ agreement to be aligned and signed as construction is targeted to finish by 2030. Trade & Exports: Serbia is showcasing 11 companies at Korea Import Fair 2026 in Seoul (food, beverages, metalworking and consumer goods), aiming to boost export potential and partnerships. Real Estate & Construction Demand: Serbia’s property market hit a record Q1 in 2026, with about €2bn in transactions (+14% y/y) driven by apartments and strong activity in Belgrade and Novi Sad. Environment & Compliance Pressure: A Bankwatch report says Western Balkans coal plants—including Serbia—kept breaching SO2 and dust pollution limits in 2025 despite legal deadlines, underlining ongoing public health costs of coal dependence. Regional Policy Context: A new EU Growth Plan analysis argues it could accelerate Western Balkans convergence with the EU—an angle that matters for Serbia’s industrial and investment outlook.

Mining & Energy Buildout: Serbia is moving ahead with a spatial plan for the Cukaru Peki and Malka Golaja mining and metallurgical complex, with the draft due within 12 months and funding by Serbia Zijin Mining. Power Plant Progress: In Niš, the ministry says planning documentation for a gas power plant is underway, with EPS and SOCAR expected to sign a shareholder agreement soon as construction is targeted for completion by 2030. Energy Security & Governance: EPS and SOCAR are also advancing toward a formal governance setup for the Niš project, tying the timeline to harmonised planning and stakeholder coordination. Trade & Industry Outreach: Serbian companies (food, consumer goods, logistics, tech and AI) are taking part in China’s CISCE in Beijing to boost exports and partnerships. US Trade Pressure on Mining: US Customs has blocked copper imports from Serbia Zijin Copper over forced-labour concerns, escalating scrutiny of labour practices in the Bor mining cluster. Business & Policy Forum: The World Congress of Economists opens in Belgrade with 1,000+ participants, focusing on industrial policy, trade, inflation, AI and the future economic order. Manufacturing Investment: Haitian’s Serbia plant in Ruma is ramping up production of injection moulding machines for Europe and MEA, supported by local staff and Chinese specialists.

Mining & Trade: The US has halted copper imports from Serbia Zijin Copper, citing suspected forced labour at the company’s Bor operations, a move that blocks the material from entering the US market. Energy & Industry Deals: Hungary’s MOL and the Serbian government signed a shareholders’ agreement for the future management of NIS, with further approvals needed; the deal is also linked to development and refinery operations. Construction & Governance: Thousands protested in Novi Sad after the 2024 railway station awning collapse killed 16 people, using the tragedy to renew calls for early elections and tighter oversight of public procurement and infrastructure. Logistics & Regional Connectivity: Hungary’s chamber says the Budapest–Belgrade railway is expected to boost Hungary’s role as a logistics hub for Chinese goods entering Europe. Real Estate & Urban Costs: Eurostat data shows rent pressure across European capitals, with the most expensive cities topping €3,000 for a two-bedroom flat. Public Works (Local): Srpska Crnja is investing about 122.6 million dinars in an outdoor pool complex, expanding its tourism and leisure offer.

Construction & Local Infrastructure: Republika Srpska says the Foca–Sarajevo road should be fully operational again within 30 days after landslides, with reconstruction of the Foca–Tjentiste road starting by month-end. Real Estate & Tourism Investment: Serbia’s government approved EUR 10m in incentives for three new hotels—Swissotel Belgrade, Crowne Plaza Zlatibor and Holiday Inn Novi Pazar—aiming to add about 500 jobs and boost business and congress tourism. Industry & Energy/Transport Links: A Serbia–MOL deal on NIS governance is highlighted as a key step for refinery operations and market supply, while the Budapest stock market rose on the week amid regional deal momentum. Protests & Governance: Thousands rallied in Novi Sad after the 2024 railway station collapse, pushing for early elections and tighter scrutiny of construction oversight and public procurement—an EU enlargement test for Serbia. Cross-border Manufacturing & Labor Scrutiny: BYD denies environmental breaches at its Szeged EV factory as Hungarian authorities investigate toxic-soil claims and the company scouts a possible second European plant. Climate Risk: Europe rolled out emergency measures as a new heat wave hit, with warnings that extreme heat is becoming more frequent and damaging.

Protest Wave in Novi Sad: Thousands rallied in northern Serbia, especially Novi Sad, to mark the 2024 railway station awning collapse that killed 16 people and to push for early parliamentary elections and deeper reforms, with protesters linking the disaster to weak oversight and mismanagement of infrastructure projects. EU Tourism Investment Push: Serbia’s Ministry of Tourism approved EUR 10m in incentives for three hotel projects—Swissotel Belgrade, Crowne Plaza Zlatibor and Holiday Inn Novi Pazar—aiming to lift tourism capacity and create around 500 jobs. Energy & Industry Diplomacy: At Belgrade’s Horizons Forum, Jeffrey Sachs urged Serbia to keep embracing connectivity and cooperation with Chinese firms for the green transition, while the event highlighted renewables and smart-grid themes. Construction & Governance: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut met EC Enlargement Director Geert Jan Koopman to review progress on Serbia’s reform agenda and discuss next steps to unlock funds under the Western Balkans Growth Plan. Labor Rights Abroad: A commentary piece argues Chinese companies expanding overseas must comply with host-country labor laws, pointing to enforcement actions and disputes tied to BYD and other projects. Tech for Healthcare: Researchers in Serbia and Austria developed a wearable neurorobotic hand system (SensoExo) combining neurostimulation and an exoskeleton, tested with 14 patients, showing improved finger mobility and grip control.

Protest & Elections: Thousands rallied in Serbia’s north, especially Novi Sad, demanding snap general elections after the 2024 railway station awning collapse, with protesters linking the tragedy to construction mismanagement and corruption. Tourism & Hospitality Investment: Serbia’s government approved EUR 10m in incentives for three new hotels—Swissotel Belgrade, Crowne Plaza Zlatibor and Holiday Inn Novi Pazar—aiming to boost business, congress and family tourism and create about 500 jobs. Automotive & Energy Industry: BYD CEO Stella Li met Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to discuss Serbia’s role in BYD’s European production network and EXPO 2027 participation, as the company faces scrutiny over overseas labor and environmental claims tied to its Hungary expansion. Construction & Infrastructure: Serbia’s construction sector continues to face public pressure after the Novi Sad disaster, while the government pushes reforms and EU-linked funding activation under the Western Balkans Growth Plan. Tech & Healthcare Innovation: A Vienna-led team with partners including Medical Faculty Belgrade reported a wearable neurorobotic system (SensoExo) that improved hand function in a clinical trial, pointing to new assistive tech opportunities in the region. Trade & Compliance: US Customs blocked copper imports from Serbia over forced-labor concerns, adding fresh pressure on supply-chain due diligence for exporters.

EV Industry & Investment: BYD CEO Stella Li met Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade, with BYD reiterating it wants a stronger role in Europe’s EV production network and Serbia positioning itself for EXPO 2027. Energy & Industry: Serbia approved a shareholders’ agreement on NIS with MOL, aiming to keep the Pančevo refinery running for at least another decade, while negotiations hinge on US OFAC approval. Trade & Supply Security: Serbia’s energy minister said talks with Russia and MOL focus on avoiding any interruption of crude oil supply to the Pančevo refinery. Electricity Costs: Serbia is set to reform household electricity block tariffs under IMF guidance, with a likely price increase by year-end. Mining & Labor Scrutiny: US customs blocked copper imports from Zijin Copper over forced-labour allegations; Serbia says it’s paying the price for US-China tensions. Governance & Compliance Risks: A report says money laundering in Serbia’s real estate sector is facilitated through notaries and intermediaries using undervalued assets and fictitious loans. Tech & Human Capital: A wearable neurorobotic system developed with partners including Medical Faculty Belgrade showed promise in restoring hand function in a clinical trial.

Surveillance Exports Watch: Human Rights Watch says Bulgaria licensed Circles (NSO Group-linked) to export phone-tracking and interception tools to governments accused of repression, including Serbia and the UAE, raising new questions about EU dual-use controls. Energy & Industry: Serbia is pushing ahead with NIS governance changes as it signs a shareholders’ agreement with MOL, while officials warn crude supply continuity for the Pančevo refinery is critical under US sanctions. Electricity Costs: Serbia’s tariff reform talks with the IMF could lift household power prices by year-end, with changes tied to inflation and a draft reform expected by late August. Construction & Safety: A worker died at the BYD car-factory construction site in Hungary, with authorities investigating after a fatal traffic incident on the project. Real Estate Money Laundering: A GI-TOC report highlights how notaries, intermediaries and real estate paperwork can be used to launder illicit funds in Serbia. Tech & AI for Business: Webotee launched an MCP connector to bring Amazon market-intelligence into Claude and ChatGPT, aiming to help sellers and agencies spot buy-box and niche opportunities. Mobility & Investment: Serbia’s leadership met BYD CEO Stella Li to discuss expanding BYD’s European production network and showcasing innovations at EXPO 2027.

Electricity Reform: Serbia is set to revise household electricity tariffs after IMF talks, with a draft reform promised by end-August and a likely price increase by year-end tied to inflation. Copper & Forced Labour Risk: The US blocked copper imports from Serbia Zijin Copper, citing forced-labour allegations; Zijin denies wrongdoing and says it complies with labour standards. Energy Deal for NIS: Serbia signed a shareholders’ agreement with MOL on future management of NIS, with the state boosting its stake to just under 35% if Gazprom Neft’s sale proceeds; MOL says it will keep refinery capacities for at least a decade. Construction & Infrastructure: Serbia issued 2,416 construction permits in April (+4.3% y/y), while the Danube bridge structure near Novi Sad connected to ease freight transit and reduce truck pressure in the city. Automotive Investment: PMC Automotive in Kragujevac secured EUR 1.45m in incentives for intake manifold and assembly production, targeting EUR 10.4m total investment and 40 new jobs. Defence Industry Contracts: Serbia’s MoD signed industrial cooperation deals in Paris with Dassault Aviation, Dassault Systemes and Thales for Rafale-related upgrades involving MTI and UTVA. Food Safety Watch: Cadmium exposure concerns return as European reporting highlights higher cadmium in cereal-based foods, renewing scrutiny on fertilisers and supply chains. Agriculture & Expo 2027: Serbia’s agriculture minister met Japan’s delegation to prepare for GREEN EXPO 2027 in Yokohama, pitching fruit farming and food-industry innovation under a sustainability-focused theme.

US-Serbia Trade Shock: US Customs (CBP) issued a Withhold Release Order on copper imports from Serbia Zijin Copper, citing possible forced-labour practices; Zijin says it opposes forced labour and welcomes independent oversight. Defence Industry: At Eurosatory 2026 in Paris, Serbia’s MTI and Pancevo’s UTVA signed contracts with Dassault Aviation, Dassault Systemes and Thales under Rafale procurement and industrial cooperation plans. Transport & Construction: The main bridge structure over the Danube near Novi Sad (Fruska Gora Corridor) was connected, aiming to cut truck transit through Petrovaradin and Novi Sad. Automotive Manufacturing: PMC Automotive in Kragujevac secured EUR 1.45m in incentives to reconstruct and adapt its plant for intake manifolds and assemblies, with a EUR 10.44m investment and new jobs by 2026-27. Energy & Fuel Policy: Serbia’s state may return 10% of waived fuel excise taxes as Brent oil falls, with decisions expected soon. Construction Activity: Serbia issued 2,416 construction permits in April, up 4.3% year-on-year, led by Belgrade. Agri-Food Diplomacy: Serbia’s agriculture minister met Japan’s delegation ahead of GREEN EXPO 2027 in Yokohama, pitching Serbia’s food production and rural development. Digital Governance: Daon earned ISO/IEC 42001 certification for AI governance covering digital identity and fraud prevention across operations including Serbia.

Sanctions Pressure on Serbia’s Copper: US Customs issued a Withhold Release Order to detain copper imports from Serbia’s Zijin Copper over forced-labour suspicions, a move that could hit export access to the US market. NIS Under OFAC Waiver: Serbia’s NIS says it has about 350,000 tonnes of crude oil secured until July 1, as OFAC extends licences for NIS and MOL’s negotiations, keeping the Pancevo refinery and supply-security transactions running. Energy Governance Deal: MOL and Serbia signed a shareholders’ agreement on managing NIS, while talks on MOL’s planned stake purchase continue under US licensing. EU Digital/Industrial Policy Signals: Cyprus hosted a digital conference pushing Europe to shift from only regulating tech to building and scaling it—an angle that matters for Serbia’s AI and industrial transformation ambitions. Finance & Growth Themes: Serbia’s central bank and finance officials stress macro stability, productivity, energy security and digital transformation as the next growth drivers. Real Estate Access Model: Urban Dom launched a Belgrade-linked property platform aiming to let more people co-own developments through structured legal stakes.

Energy & Industry Deal: MOL and the Serbian government signed a shareholders’ agreement on the future governance of NIS, keeping the Pančevo refinery running if MOL completes its planned purchase of a majority stake from Gazprom Neft, with OFAC approval still a key step. Sanctions Pressure on Serbia’s Copper: U.S. CBP issued a withhold release order blocking copper shipments from Serbia’s Zijin Copper over suspected forced labour, following similar U.S. action on other Serbian-linked products. Green Power Build-Out in Eastern Serbia: Timocka Krajina is accelerating into solar development, including a planned 50 MW “Mali Izvor” project near Zaječar with 20 MWh storage, alongside larger decarbonisation plans around Bor and Majdanpek. Industrial Tech & Compliance: Daon says it has achieved ISO/IEC 42001 certification for AI management systems across its operations, including Serbia—relevant for fraud prevention and digital identity. Specialty Ingredients for Serbia’s Supply Chains: Univar Solutions expanded its EMEA distribution partnership with American Distilling for natural witch hazel ingredients used in personal care and pharma.

US Trade Enforcement: U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a Withhold Release Order blocking copper and copper products from Serbia Zijin Copper D.O.O. over suspected forced-labour use, following a similar move against Linglong tyres from Zrenjanin. Energy Governance: MOL and the Serbian government signed a shareholders’ agreement for the future management of NIS, keeping the Pančevo refinery running if MOL completes its planned majority takeover from Gazprom Neft—still dependent on OFAC approvals. Sanctions Timing: Serbia’s NIS received a U.S. sanctions reprieve until July 1 to keep importing and processing crude while MOL’s negotiations continue. Green Power Buildout: Eastern Serbia’s Timocka Krajina is shifting from mining heritage to solar investment, with a new 50 MW private solar park near Zaječar and broader gigawatt-scale grid planning. Industrial Tourism Idea: A conference in Cyprus highlighted how food, wine, cosmetics and farms can turn production sites into visitor destinations—an approach discussed with Serbian stakeholders. Serbia–Georgia Trade Push: Vučić and Georgian leaders discussed a free trade agreement and transport/logistics links to boost investment and transit potential.

Energy Deal Update: MOL and the Serbian government signed a shareholders’ agreement on the future governance of NIS, paving the way for MOL to take over a majority stake from Gazprom Neft; the pact would let Serbia buy an extra 5% if the transaction closes and US OFAC approval is granted, with the Pancevo refinery expected to keep operating at pre-sanctions scale for at least 10 years. Sanctions & Compliance: Serbia’s NIS talks also got a 15-day extension as OFAC approval remains the key hurdle. Trade & Industry Risk: US Customs and Border Protection issued a Withhold Release Order on copper products from Serbia Zijin Copper D.O.O., citing forced-labor concerns. Diplomacy for Business: President Vučić met Georgia’s leaders in Tbilisi, with talks including a free trade agreement and closer transport/logistics links—an angle that could matter for regional supply chains. Aviation Connectivity: Qatar Airways restored and expanded its Summer 2026 network to 160+ destinations, including renewed service to Belgrade. Macro Watch: The IMF said Serbia’s third PCI review was successful, citing robust reforms and targets met, while warning about fiscal and energy risks ahead.

Macroeconomic Update: The IMF said Serbia’s third review under its PCI-backed economic programme is successful, citing robust reforms and targets met, while warning about fiscal and energy risks and noting growth strengthening in early 2026. Energy & Industry Diplomacy: Serbian PM Djuro Macut met Egypt’s leadership in Cairo to push cooperation in medical tourism, pharmaceuticals and education, while Serbia’s energy minister discussed UAE-backed renewable projects and support tied to NIS. Infrastructure & Transport: Serbia’s Morava Corridor is set to open a 29 km section from Preljina–Čačak to Adrani–Kraljevo in about ten days, with plans for 5G digitalization and new industrial zones. Payments Regulation: Serbia’s National Bank draft would cap interbank card fees for foreign-issued cards used in Serbia, aligning debit/credit limits with the existing domestic rules. Bilateral Trade Boost: Angola and Serbia signed 10 agreements in Belgrade, including double-tax relief aimed at lowering costs and attracting private investment. Energy Security: Serbia and MOL’s NIS acquisition talks continue to move forward, with OFAC licensing mentioned as a key step. Regional Connectivity: Air Serbia launched the Baku–Belgrade route, positioning Belgrade as a growing gateway between the Caucasus and the Western Balkans. Security & Compliance: A major Italian police operation dismantled an underground “ghost bank” used by criminal networks to move €80–€100m a year, underscoring ongoing financial crime risks across Europe.

IMF Watch: The IMF says Serbia’s third review under its PCI-backed programme is successful, citing completed reform targets and meeting end-2025 quantitative goals, while warning that fiscal and energy risks remain as external headwinds persist. Roads & Industry Zones: Serbia’s Morava Corridor is set to open a 29 km section from Preljina–Čačak to Adrani–Kraljevo in about ten days, with the corridor also flagged as bringing three new industrial zones and being described as Serbia’s first digitalized 5G highway. Aviation Regulation Pressure: The European Commission is reviewing Serbia’s March amendments on foreign air carriers after Wizz Air warned the rules could force it to close its Belgrade base. Energy & NIS: Serbia’s energy ministry and partners continue to move around the NIS ownership and refinery operations, with the state preparing to increase its stake and secure strategic influence if MOL takes over the Russian stake. EU Connectivity Context: At the EU–Western Balkans summit, the EU reiterated that it “will not be complete without the Western Balkans,” as accession momentum and regional infrastructure narratives keep building. Serbia–Egypt Business Push: Serbian PM Djuro Macut met Egypt’s leadership in Cairo, discussing stepped-up cooperation in medical tourism, pharmaceuticals, education, and possible direct flights, plus Serbia’s EXPO 2027 participation. Trade & Payments Policy: Serbia’s card payment fee rules are set to extend fee limits to cards issued abroad when used in Serbia, aiming to curb interbank fee costs. Chemicals Deal: Vipul Organics signed an exclusive European distribution agreement with Omya for pigment ranges, covering markets including Serbia and Bosnia.