AGP Executive Report

Serbia’s EU Accession Push: Danijel Apostolović says Serbia could be “technically ready” to open Cluster 2 by end-June, pointing to progress on state aid and free zones laws, while Cluster 5 (agriculture) looks tougher. Energy & Gas Security: Serbia agreed a further three-month extension of Russian Gazprom gas imports after talks in St Petersburg, keeping deliveries “stable” and “affordable” while also discussing Banatski Dvor storage expansion. NIS Deal Update (MOL): MOL received another OFAC license extension to keep negotiating its acquisition of NIS until 16 June, after earlier deadlines were extended to June 6. Trade & Industry Links: Serbia and South Korea completed negotiations for a free trade agreement, setting up a stronger framework for business and investment ties. Construction & Compliance: CINS reports PowerChina was cleared in a court case tied to workers without permits at the National Stadium site, with liability placed on the parent company rather than the Serbian branch. Jobs & Skills Pressure: Infostud survey finds about 60% of employees in Serbia plan to change jobs within a year, with low engagement and trust flagged across industries. Consumer Policy: Serbia is set to adopt a new consumer protection law with major changes. Regional Context: Kosovo’s snap election produced a Kurti-led win but coalition uncertainty remains, while Albania’s “flamingo revolution” protests target a Kushner-linked luxury resort over environmental concerns.

Energy Deal Watch: MOL got a new U.S. OFAC license to keep negotiating its planned purchase of a majority stake in Serbia’s NIS, extending talks until June 16 and aiming to finalize transaction paperwork. Gas Supply Stability: Serbia also agreed another three-month extension for Russian Gazprom gas deliveries, with officials citing energy security, affordability, and storage expansion plans. Trade & Industry Links: Serbia and South Korea say they’ve completed negotiations on a free trade agreement, setting up a broader business and investment framework. Manufacturing Upgrade Narrative: A Serbia–China cooperation story highlights how Chinese tech is being used to modernize Serbian production, with firms describing a “Chinese brain” digital monitoring system on shop floors. Regional Politics With Economic Impact: Kosovo’s snap parliamentary election delivered early results showing Kurti’s party leading, but the political impasse—and knock-on effects for the economy—remains unresolved. Tourism vs Environment: In Albania, mass protests continue against a Kushner-linked €1.4–1.6bn luxury resort near protected wetlands, with demonstrators warning of damage to flamingo habitats and calling for greater transparency.

Energy & Industry: Serbia agreed a further three-month extension of its Gazprom gas supply deal, keeping deliveries “stable” and “affordable” until Sept. 30, with talks also touching expansion of the Banatski Dvor storage facility. Trade & Manufacturing: Serbia and South Korea have completed negotiations for a free trade agreement, setting up a new framework for business and investment cooperation. Industrial Upgrading: A Xinhua report highlights Serbia’s “Chinese brain” digital production monitoring in an auto-parts plant in Niš, pointing to faster technology transfer and modernization since the China-Serbia free trade deal. Oil & Energy Deals: The US granted MOL more time to negotiate buying a majority stake in Russia-controlled NIS, extending talks to June 16 to finalize transaction documentation. EU Integration & Security: At the EU-Western Balkans summit in Montenegro, leaders pushed faster accession, framing enlargement increasingly as a security necessity. Regional Politics Impacting Business: Kosovo’s third election in 18 months is underway amid political deadlock, with analysts warning the instability is weighing on the economy and investment climate.

Energy & M&A: The US granted Hungary’s MOL more time to negotiate the purchase of a majority stake in Serbia’s NIS from Gazprom, extending talks to June 16 as documentation work moves forward. Industrial modernization: A new report highlights how Chinese technology is reshaping Serbian manufacturing, with firms using advanced automation systems to boost efficiency and competitiveness. EU integration pressure: At the EU–Western Balkans summit in Montenegro, leaders pushed faster enlargement and urged Serbia to make a clear strategic choice, while also backing incentives like earlier market access and simplified accession steps. Regional politics with economic spillovers: Kosovo heads to its third parliamentary election in 18 months amid institutional deadlock, with voters frustrated and analysts warning the repeated election cycle is weighing on the economy. Environment & investment backlash: In Albania, thousands protest a €1.4bn Kushner-linked luxury resort near the Vjosa-Narta protected wetland, raising alarms over biodiversity and transparency—an issue that will resonate across the region’s investment and construction debates.

Albania Tourism vs. Environment: Thousands of Albanians protested in Tirana against a €1.4bn Kushner-linked luxury resort near the Vjosa-Narta protected wetland, with critics warning of damage to flamingo habitats and other sensitive coastal ecosystems. Serbia–China Industrial Upgrade: Serbia’s push to modernize manufacturing is getting a boost from new China-linked investment deals, highlighted by a “Chinese brain” digital monitoring system at an auto-parts plant in Niš. EU Enlargement Pressure on Belgrade: At the Western Balkans summit in Tivat, Merz and Macron backed faster, “gradual integration” steps for candidate countries, while EU leaders told Serbia progress depends on reforms and alignment with EU foreign and security policy. Energy & Renewables Deal: Emergy says it has completed the sale of the 168MW Alibunar wind farm project to Chinese Heavy Energy International, paving the way for construction and more renewables for Serbia. Aviation Business Risk: Wizz Air warns Serbia’s revised route-approval rules could force it to close its Belgrade base from Nov 2026, threatening about 150 jobs and routes. Kosovo Political Instability: Kosovo heads to a snap parliamentary election on June 7 amid a deep institutional deadlock, with voters frustrated by repeated elections and stalled government formation.

EU Enlargement Talks: At the EU–Western Balkans summit in Tivat, EU leaders pushed a faster, more credible accession path, with Germany’s Merz telling Serbia it must choose Europe over balancing Russia and China. Serbia’s Accession Momentum: Serbian President Vučić backed a Franco-German “gradual integration” idea that could let candidates join EU formats earlier, aiming to unlock Cluster 3 and then Cluster 2. Energy & Industry Diplomacy: Serbia’s energy leadership met Gazprom and discussed extending gas supplies and improving terms around NIS, while also noting ongoing negotiations involving Hungary’s MOL. Aviation & Jobs: Wizz Air warned Serbia’s revised route approval rules could force it to close its Belgrade base from November 2026, putting about 150 jobs at risk. Tech & Finance: Serbian crypto platform Veli sold its investment software and code license to Danish fintech Penning, linking Serbia’s tech talent with EU-regulated markets. Regional Business Links: Serbia and Uzbekistan highlighted cooperation in textiles, pharma, agriculture, tourism, transport/logistics, industrial projects and energy. Food Trade Networking: Balkan Expo 2026 opened with B2B meetings for food industry players across the Western Balkans, including processing, packaging and agriculture firms.

EU Enlargement Push: EU and Western Balkans leaders met in Tivat, Montenegro, with France-Germany backing “gradual integration” to speed reforms, while Ursula von der Leyen urged a faster, more credible accession path. Serbia’s EU Track: President Vučić said Serbia supports Macron-Merz ideas for phased EU integration and expects progress on accession clusters. Aviation & Jobs: Wizz Air warned Serbia’s revised route-approval rules could force it to close its Belgrade base from Nov 2026, risking about 150 jobs and route cancellations. Energy Security: Serbia’s energy minister said Gazprom gas supply has been extended for another three months and stressed reliable Russia ties amid geopolitical uncertainty. Renewables Investment: Emergy completed the sale of the Alibunar wind farm project (168 MW) to a SANY-linked buyer, boosting Serbia’s clean power pipeline. Tech & Finance: Serbian crypto platform Veli sold its investment software and source-code license to Danish fintech Penning, aiming to launch a MiCA-compliant wealth platform in Europe. UAE-Serbia Business: Serbia’s PM met UAE FNC speaker Saqr Ghobash, highlighting CEPA-driven cooperation in renewables, food security, agriculture, logistics and digital transformation.

Trade & Industry Diplomacy: South Korea and Serbia have finalized a CEPA, cutting tariffs on 90% of traded items and easing access for key Serbian inputs like lithium, cobalt and nickel—aimed at stabilizing supply chains for chips and secondary batteries. Aviation & Jobs: Wizz Air says Serbia’s new Civil Aviation Directorate rules could force it to shut its Belgrade base from November 2026, warning of 150+ job losses and fewer direct routes for passengers. Energy Security: Serbia’s energy minister says Gazprom confirmed a three-month extension of gas supplies beyond June 30, plus talks on expanding Banatski dvor storage and resolving NIS issues under US sanctions. EU Integration Push: EU leaders meet in Tivat to accelerate Western Balkan integration, with Montenegro and Albania moving deeper while Serbia is in the mix for faster, more market-focused alignment. Water & Infrastructure: Belgrade declared a water system emergency after two wells went offline, with officials stressing drinking water is still safe while repairs continue. Regional Investment Politics: Serbia’s PM Macut met UAE FNC Speaker Saqr Ghobash, highlighting CEPA-linked trade growth and new cooperation areas like AI, energy and infrastructure. Protests & Tourism Risk: Albania’s mass protests against a Kushner-linked €1.4bn coastal resort underline how environmental governance can derail high-end development plans.

EU Accession Momentum: The EU has formally agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova on the first cluster of chapters, with all 27 member states backing the move and Cyprus preparing the next steps. EU Enlargement for the Western Balkans: Brussels is also pushing faster momentum for WB6 countries, including Serbia, as it seeks to expand “Roam Like at Home” roaming benefits across the region. Energy Security: In St Petersburg, Serbia’s mining and energy minister Dubravka Djedović Handanović said Gazprom confirmed a three-month extension of gas supplies beyond June 30 and discussed storage expansion, while NIS remains a key sanctions-linked negotiation topic. NIS Ownership Talks: MOL has requested more time for talks over its acquisition of a Russian-majority stake in NIS, with Serbia signaling it expects a compromise that protects national interests. Aviation Competition: Wizz Air says Serbia’s new Civil Aviation Directorate rules could force it to close its Belgrade base from November, while authorities argue the changes are fair and non-restrictive. Bilateral Business Push: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut met UAE’s Saqr Ghobash to deepen trade, investment, and cooperation in energy, infrastructure, education and AI. Construction & Industry: Work is nearing completion on an Industrial and Technology Park in Kruševac, with first tenants expected in September. Regional Diplomacy: Serbia’s president called for reviving the 2020 Washington Agreement with Kosovo to restart stalled infrastructure cooperation outside the EU track.

Consumer Policy: Serbia adopted a new Consumer Protection Law, tightening rules on pricing and discounts (including unit prices), boosting protections for online shopping and digital services, and pushing more transparency on online reviews and extra costs—while raising compliance and enforcement questions for smaller firms. Energy & Industry: Hungary’s MOL asked the US OFAC for a 30-day extension to finish talks on buying the Russian stake in Serbia’s NIS, with NIS also expected to seek an operating licence extension; the refinery’s future operations remain a key sticking point. Gas Security: The Energy Community says gas security in South East and Eastern Europe is improving as storage rules are implemented; Serbia met early-2026 storage targets for Banatski Dvor. Diplomacy for Trade: Serbia’s President met Uzbekistan’s Senate speaker to push joint projects in agriculture, energy, transport, infrastructure, IT and digital transformation, while a Serbian businessman was appointed Uzbekistan chamber representative in Serbia. Agriculture Risk: Heavy rain and hail hit Serbian orchards, vineyards and field crops across multiple regions, renewing calls for tougher risk management and better forecasting. Regional Watch: Albania’s Adriatic resort plans linked to Jared Kushner sparked mass protests over environmental impacts and foreign-investment governance.

Energy Deal Watch: Hungary’s MOL has asked the US OFAC for another 30 days to finish talks on buying a majority stake in Serbia’s NIS, with deadlines now tied to an OFAC extension and a June 16 operating licence renewal. Power & Grid Planning: Serbia’s energy ministry says the country will invest €14.4bn in the sector from 2028-2035, including new generation, grid upgrades, gas interconnectors, oil pipelines, and work on a gas-fired plant near Niš plus Bistrica hydropower. Gas Security: The Energy Community reports improving gas storage readiness across South East and Eastern Europe, noting Serbia’s Banatski Dvor is on track toward winter targets. Agriculture & Food Safety: Serbia’s Veterinary Specialist Institute Kraljevo has been named WOAH reference lab for lumpy skin disease of cattle—its first such designation. Business Links: Uzbekistan appointed Serbian entrepreneur Vladimir Ribić as its chamber representative in Serbia, aiming to boost trade and joint projects in agriculture, energy, transport and IT. Industry & Jobs: FPM Agro Mechanic is setting up an agro-equipment manufacturing and assembly plant in Lusaka, built in Serbia—targeting full operations within 8-10 weeks. Diplomacy for Industry: UAE and Serbia reaffirmed ties in a parliamentary session, with emphasis on economic cooperation and investment.

Energy Investment: Serbia’s acting mining and energy minister says the country plans to invest €14.4bn in the energy sector from 2028 to 2035, with big money for new power capacity, grid upgrades, gas interconnectors and oil pipelines, plus priority works including a reversible Bistrica hydropower project and a gas-fired plant near Niš. Mining & Exploration: Minrex has restarted drilling at the Barje gold and silver deposit near Bosilegrad after a seven-year gap, aiming to upgrade inferred resources and fund a new scoping study; Bindi Metals also kicked off early drilling at its Ravni gold project, hitting broad sulphide-bearing alteration at Drenjak. Agribusiness Manufacturing: FPM Agro Mechanic is setting up an agricultural equipment manufacturing and assembly plant in Lusaka, built by a Serbian multinational, targeting full operations in 8–10 weeks and expanding exports. Animal Health & Food Safety: Serbia’s Veterinary Specialist Institute Kraljevo was named WOAH reference laboratory for lumpy skin disease of cattle, marking the country’s first WOAH reference lab. Budget Oversight: Serbia’s State Audit Office warns of a HUF 286bn uncovered gap in the 2026 budget tied to construction and transport spending, including major shortfalls for the Budapest–Belgrade railway and expressway availability fees. Cyber & Resilience: Slovenia’s SI-CERT reports handling about 6,000 cyber incidents a year, showing how regional incident triage is scaling up. Transport Infrastructure: The Belgrade–Budapest high-speed rail upgrade remains delayed for passenger services despite line completion, with freight use still modest.

Water Supply Watch: Belgrade declared a water system emergency after two municipal wells went offline, but officials say drinking water is safe while repairs and testing ramp up. EU Enlargement & Migration: EU lawmakers backed tougher “return hub” rules as Brussels pushes enlargement talks for the Western Balkans, including Serbia. Energy & Industry Risk: Analysis links the Hormuz shock to deeper economic and energy-security vulnerabilities across southeast Europe, stressing interconnectors and cross-border power. Reform Agenda Push: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut met ministries to speed up implementation of the EU Growth Plan Reform Agenda, with focus on energy, justice and public administration. Serbia–Finland Ties: Marko Đurić says Finland reaffirmed unequivocal support for Serbia’s EU path, with new momentum for political and economic cooperation. Serbia–China Industry Upgrade: Chamber chief Marko Cadez says cooperation is shifting toward AI and robotics, with new jobs and supply-chain expo plans. Construction & Skills: Work begins on an electric car battery factory in Subotica with first worker training, while Belgrade businesses brace for the next construction phase. Mining & Drilling: Minrex starts expansion drilling at Serbia’s Barje gold deposit. Media & Culture: Film Center Serbia signs a cooperation deal with China Media Group to support Expo 2027 and boost Serbia’s film industry.

GDP Momentum: Serbia’s economy grew 3.2% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with exports rising and household spending up, while industry slipped 0.7% and construction grew 5.1%. EV Supply Chain: Subotica’s ElevenEs has started hiring and training for Europe’s first electric vehicle battery factory, targeting production with support from Caterpillar Venture Capital. Power & Energy Security: EPS and SOCAR signed basic terms for a gas-fired power plant in Niš, aiming for up to 500 MW of baseload capacity by 2030. Mining Update: Minrex began drilling at the near-surface Barje gold deposit in southern Serbia to upgrade resources and feed a scoping study later this year. EU Integration Watch: EU leaders reaffirmed enlargement as a geostrategic priority for the Western Balkans, with Serbia among the candidate countries navigating EU “chapters.” Water Infrastructure: Belgrade declared a water emergency to repair two offline municipal wells, saying drinking water remains safe.

Energy Deals: EPS and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR signed basic terms for a gas-fired power plant in Niš, aiming for up to 500 MW baseload capacity by 2030 and setting up a joint company framework. Gas Security: Serbia also moved to diversify supply routes, with plans for new interconnections (including with North Macedonia and Romania) and upgrades to transport, storage and compressor capacity. Power Market Shift: A Belgrade Energy Forum 2026 panel highlighted why battery energy storage systems (BESS) are becoming “non-optional” for reliability in Southeastern Europe, pushing for clearer financing and grid-service rules. Mining Watch: Mundoro and BHP continued intensive copper and gold exploration near Bor, while Regener8 secured 100% ownership of the Srebrenica North polymetallic project and is preparing its first exploration program. Transport & Industry Infrastructure: Serbia published details for Corridor 10 rail modernization toward Greece, and environmental steps advanced for an oil pipeline from the Hungarian border to Novi Sad. Weather Alerts: Serbia’s hydrometeorological institute issued warnings for unstable conditions with heavy downpours, thunderstorms and localized severe weather.

UAE–Serbia Economic Push: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić about expanding cooperation in the economy, development and renewable energy under the CEPA framework. Mining & Exploration: Mundoro Capital and BHP continue intensive copper and gold exploration near Bor, with results from the Skorusa program expected as soon as June. Rail Infrastructure: Serbia has started the formal environmental process for a high-speed Corridor 10 upgrade through North Macedonia, including a double-track electrified line and speed targets up to 160 km/h for passengers. Energy Security (Gas): Serbia plans new gas interconnections with North Macedonia and Romania within two years, alongside upgrades to compressor capacity and underground storage, to diversify supply routes. Oil Pipeline (EIA Kickoff): Serbia’s environmental ministry set the scope for the mandatory EIA for a main oil pipeline from the Hungarian border to Novi Sad, with a one-year deadline for the study before construction can begin. Weather Alerts: Serbia’s Hydrometeorological Institute issued warnings for unstable conditions, including heavy downpours, thunderstorms and localized severe weather. Diplomacy Day: Foreign Minister Marko Đurić marked Serbian Diplomacy Day, stressing peace, dialogue and regional stability. China–Serbia “Ironclad” Ties: Xi Jinping praised Vučić during the China visit, highlighting deeper cooperation in economy, technology and energy.