AGP Executive Report

Serbia’s Investment Outlook: Fitch reaffirmed Serbia’s BB+ credit rating with a positive outlook, citing stable policies, exchange-rate discipline, strong FX reserves and resilience, with expectations of faster growth and investment. Energy Connectivity: The Vertical Gas Corridor is picking up speed as capacity bookings for 2026/27–2029/30 already reach 46% at the Sidirokastro border point, and Serbia has officially joined the initiative alongside North Macedonia. Textile Compliance Push: Serbia’s Chamber of Commerce (CCIS) and SIPPO are building “Sustainable Textile Serbia,” a digital hub due by end-July to help local firms meet new EU sustainability rules. Mining & Gold Development: Middle Island Resources says its Bobija project near Ljubovija has opened a large, shallow gold-silver system across 80,000 m², with boundaries still expanding. Project Transfer in Mining: Dundee Precious Metals plans to dismantle Bulgaria’s Ada Tepe processing equipment and reuse it for Serbia’s Coka Rakita gold project, aiming to start construction in early 2027. Renewables Grid Reality Check: Serbia’s RES capacity is now triple 2022 levels, but the energy ministry warns that connection requests (12 GW transmission, 6 GW distribution) require careful network planning to protect stability.

Credit & Investment Climate: Fitch affirmed Serbia’s BB+ rating with a positive outlook, citing stable policies, exchange-rate discipline, solid FX reserves and improving growth prospects. Textile Compliance Push: CCIS and Switzerland’s SIPPO are building a digital platform, Sustainable Textile Serbia, to help local textile firms meet new EU sustainability rules, with tools and guidance due by end-July. Mining & Gold Development: Australian Middle Island Resources says Bobija drilling connected three zones into one large shallow gold-silver system (80,000 m²) with the deposit still open for expansion. Project Pipeline: Dundee Precious Metals plans to dismantle Bulgaria’s Ada Tepe processing equipment and reuse it for Serbia’s Coka Rakita, with construction targeted for early 2027. Renewables Grid Reality Check: Serbia’s energy minister says RES capacity is now triple 2022 levels, but stresses careful network integration and mentions progress on RHPP Bistrica and Djerdap 3. Regional Energy Links: Serbia has joined the Vertical Gas Corridor, with technical work starting to connect new countries and strengthen Balkan-Central Europe market integration. Aviation Safety Shock: A Ryanair flight from Thessaloniki to Germany returned after a window detached; a Serbian passenger was injured but not life-threateningly. Industry Spotlight (Film, but regional): Serbia’s co-production 3 Weeks After won the Europa Cinemas Label at Karlovy Vary, boosting distribution prospects for the Serbian-led youth-focused story.

Energy Diplomacy: Bulgaria’s energy minister says no extra conditions were attached to the Bulgargaz–BOTAS protocol review, setting a 15-month push to better use the long-term gas deal and reduce arrears risk. Regional Energy Integration: Greece and Bulgaria plan a joint strategic document to speed Southeast/Central Europe market integration, while Vertical Gas Corridor talks add North Macedonia and Serbia to the technical work. Mining & Equipment: EPS installed the first rotor excavator for Radljevo mine in Kolubara, a concrete step for production capacity in Serbia’s mining basin. Agribusiness: Serbia culls 11,000 pigs after an African swine fever outbreak in the west, underlining ongoing biosecurity pressure on farms. Manufacturing & Industry Tech: Malbex Carbon says it has completed a graphite electrode factory in Merosina, with production start targeted for September. Aviation Safety: A Ryanair Boeing 737 flight from Thessaloniki to Germany made an emergency return after a passenger window detached in-flight; a Serbian passenger was injured but not life-threatening. Culture with Industry Links: Serbian co-production “3 Weeks After” won the Europa Cinemas Label at Karlovy Vary, boosting visibility for regional film production and distribution.

Serbia’s Defense & Mining: EPS installed the first rotor excavator for the Radlјevo mine in the Kolubara Mining Basin, a concrete step for output in one of Serbia’s key mining areas. Energy Infrastructure: Serbia joined Vertical Gas Corridor talks as DESFA reported capacity bookings ahead of plan, with new technical work starting to extend the corridor to Serbia and North Macedonia. Agribusiness & Biosecurity: Serbia will cull 11,000 pigs after an African swine fever outbreak in western farms, underlining how fast animal-health risks can hit production. Manufacturing & Industry: Malbex Carbon announced construction of a graphite electrode factory in Merosina with production start targeted for September, pointing to deeper industrial inputs for heavy industry. Tech & Innovation: AI for Good Impact Europe is set to be held in Belgrade during Expo 2027, signaling more international tech programming for Serbian ecosystems. Aviation Safety (Serbian link): A Ryanair Boeing 737 incident in Greece involved a Serbian passenger after a window dislodged in flight, prompting an emergency return and hospital treatment. Politics (business climate): President Vučić said he will resign in the coming weeks, with early elections likely—an immediate watch item for investment sentiment. Culture (Serbia co-production): “3 Weeks After,” a Serbia-led co-production, won the Europa Cinemas Label at Karlovy Vary, boosting visibility for local creative industries.

EV & Charging: BYD is running a 15,000km Rome-to-Hong Kong test drive for its Blade Battery 2.0 and superfast charging, with upgraded Denza Z9GT versions touring Europe including Serbia. Aviation Safety: A Ryanair Boeing 737 from Thessaloniki to Germany returned after a passenger window dislodged in flight; a Serbian passenger was partially sucked out but treated for non-life-threatening injuries while investigators look at a possible engine-debris cause. Mining & Energy Equipment: EPS says a 35-meter rotor excavator is installed for the Radljevo mine in Kolubara, part of a €450m push to boost overburden and accelerate coal production. Energy Infrastructure: Bulgaria and Greece met to speed up the Vertical Gas Corridor, with Serbia among partners discussing progress toward operation and regional gas access. Defense Industry: Serbia showcased next-gen armored vehicles, artillery, drones and precision weapons at Eurosatory 2026 via Yugoimport, aiming to expand global defense exports. Politics & EU Path: Italy’s “Rome Charter” push links Western Balkans EU enlargement to transport, energy and digital connectivity, while Serbia’s accession talks are still described as stalled. Diplomacy: Marko Đurić met Hungary’s Anita Orbán in Rome, highlighting EU integration support and growing bilateral trade and investment.

Defense & Industry: Serbia’s Yugoimport showcased next-gen armored vehicles, artillery, drones and precision weapons at Eurosatory 2026, signaling a push to sell integrated land-warfare solutions abroad. Mining & Energy Equipment: EPS completed a 35-meter rotor excavator for the Radljevo mine in Kolubara, part of a ~€450m investment to boost overburden and coal output. Energy Infrastructure: Operators met in Athens to advance the Vertical Gas Corridor, with planning aimed at faster regional access to non-Russian gas and LNG via Greece, and Serbia’s interconnector steps toward 2027. Agriculture & Biosecurity: Serbia began culling 11,000 pigs after an African swine fever outbreak in western farms, with state compensation promised to owners. Monetary Policy: The National Bank of Serbia kept its key rate at 5.75%, citing inflation within target but warning global energy/commodity risks could push prices up later this year. EU & Regional Politics: Italy’s “Rome Charter” aims to speed Western Balkans EU integration and link enlargement to transport, energy and digital connectivity—while Serbia’s accession remains stalled. Aviation Safety (Serbian angle): A Ryanair Boeing 737 incident near Thessaloniki involved a dislodged passenger window and right-engine/cabin decompression issues; a Serbian passenger was hospitalized after being pulled back inside. Security & Justice: Indictments were filed in the Senjak restaurant murder case, including aggravated murder and illegal arms charges.

African Swine Fever Response: Serbia has started culling 11,000 pigs in western Hrtkovci after an ASF outbreak, with the state saying owners will be compensated; the cull is expected to last several days. Monetary Policy: The National Bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate at 5.75%, citing inflation still within target but warning that global geopolitical and commodity risks could push prices later this year. Energy & Heat: Serbia is moving into the second phase of a biomass district heating rollout (31.9m euros), expanding biomass use in multiple cities through 2029 with KfW, the EU and Germany support. Renewables Pipeline: A draft plan is out for the Gornjak wind farm (up to 34 turbines) in the Branicevo district, with public inspection and an environmental impact assessment process underway. Cross-Border Trade & Logistics: Bulgaria and Serbia signed a memorandum to open the Kalotina 2–Gradina 2 border crossing to ease traffic at the existing Kalotina checkpoint. Industry & Tech: Serbia’s Development Agency and Chamber of Commerce backed a national presence at GITEX AI Europe, with 12 IT companies and 16 startups pitching AI solutions to international partners. Business Climate: Serbia’s economy is described as open to cooperation with both EU/US and Russia/China, with digitalization, AI and robotics highlighted as priorities.

Border Infrastructure: Bulgaria and Serbia signed a memorandum to open the new Kalotina 2–Gradina 2 border crossing to ease growing traffic, with both sides also discussing additional checkpoints. Energy & Heat: Serbia is rolling out the second phase of its biomass district heating programme (31.9m euros), expanding biomass use in cities including Prijepolje and Novi Pazar through 2029. Renewables Pipeline: Serbia’s Homolje region is moving ahead with one of Southeast Europe’s biggest wind projects as the Gornjak wind farm draft plan enters public review, targeting up to 34 turbines. Agriculture & Biosecurity: Serbia has started culling 11,000 pigs after an African swine fever outbreak in the west, with state compensation for owners. Manufacturing & Aviation MRO: MTU Aero Engines officially opened its expanded Fort Worth MRO hub and inducted its first CFM Leap-1B engine for GOL, underlining growing aftermarket focus. Tech & Startups: Serbia’s national presence at GITEX AI Europe 2026 brought 12 companies and 16 startups to pitch AI and digital solutions to international partners. Policy & Rates: The National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate at 5.75%, citing inflation within target tolerance and risks from the international environment.

Renewables & Planning: The Municipality of Zagubica has opened public inspection for the Draft Detailed Regulation Plan and Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for the Gornjak wind farm, one of the biggest RES projects in Southeast Europe, with up to 34 turbines (7 in Zagubica, the rest in Petrovac na Mlavi) and about 5.3–6 km spacing from nearby settlements. Mining & Production: DPM Metals reported preliminary Q2 results showing increased gold equivalent production, driven by strong Chelopech performance and the ongoing ramp-up of Vareš, alongside a return of capital via share repurchases. Energy Markets: A renewed Middle East flare-up pushed oil and gas prices higher, raising fresh inflation fears across Europe as Brent jumped and European gas prices climbed. Border Infrastructure: Bulgaria and Serbia’s interior ministries are set to sign an agreement to open the new Kalotina 2–Gradina 2 border checkpoint, aiming to ease traffic at the crossing. Finance & Macro: Serbia’s inherited fiscal deficit was put at 8.3% after an audit, with the new government outlining revised deficit targets and budget amendments. Economic Outlook: The IMF forecasts Serbia among Europe’s fastest-growing economies, citing EXPO 2027 Belgrade as a key driver for public investment in infrastructure and urban renewal. Industry & Logistics: Serbia’s Post is planning new capacity in Southeast Serbia, including a large logistics and warehouse complex at Constantine the Great Airport. Sports with Local Business Angle: A Tyneside sports/orthopaedic supplier secured a six-figure investment after supplying Novak Djokovic’s Wimbledon recovery sleeve and launching a signature range. Politics (Context for Business): Vučić said parliamentary elections are likely first, with timing to be set in August or September, and household support measures to be brought forward to mid-September.

Mining & Industry: DPM Metals says it boosted gold equivalent production in Q2, driven by Chelopech performance and the ramp-up of the Vareš mine, while continuing a return-of-capital program and pointing to exploration success including the Brevene South Porphyry discovery. Energy & Macroeconomy: A renewed Middle East flare-up pushed Brent up about 7% and lifted European gas prices, dragging European shares and reviving fears of stickier inflation and higher-for-longer rates. Construction & Infrastructure: Serbia is moving to reestablish the Belgrade–Trieste rail link, with talks also covering a D visa for Serbian professional drivers to ease Schengen-related constraints on supply chains. Manufacturing (Metallurgy supply chain): Malbex Carbon reports completion of its Merosina graphite electrode factory, with production planned for September 1 and hiring ramping from 30+ workers. Trade & Industry Support: Serbia and the UK extended cumulation of origin rules from July 1, improving export flexibility for sectors including food, textiles, electrical goods and automotive. Economic Outlook: The IMF forecasts Serbia as one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies, citing an investment cycle tied to EXPO 2027 Belgrade and industrial investment, including mining. Local Development: Belgrade’s city council approved steps toward about 230 housing units on 40 acres in southern Belgrade, moving the project through zoning and a July 20 hearing.

Graphite for steel supply: Malbex Carbon has finished its Serbian-Chinese graphite electrode plant in Merosina, with production due to start on Sept. 1 and staffing rising from 30+ to up to 54 by year-end. Rail connectivity: Serbia and Italy are moving to reinstate Belgrade–Trieste passenger rail, with work tied to Serbia’s 2035 plan and a focus on easing Schengen stay limits for Serbian professional drivers via upcoming D visas. Trade rules update: Serbia–UK preferential trade gets easier from July 1 as extended cumulation of origin enters into force, letting exporters use inputs from the EU/EFTA, Turkey, Egypt and some CEFTA partners—expected to help food, textiles, electrical and automotive firms. Business support & reforms: PM Djuro Macut’s consultations stress faster implementation of Serbia’s Reform Agenda, including opening Cluster 3, plus a new support package for small businesses. Energy & industry diplomacy: Serbia’s Vucic expects progress soon on MOL’s buyout of Russia’s NIS stake, while Serbia also signals interest in deeper cooperation with BRICS at Innoprom. Regional enforcement: A global human-trafficking crackdown (Operation Global Chain) involved 59 countries and led to 2,070 victims identified and 1,024 suspects arrested.

Transport & Infrastructure: Serbia and Italy are moving to reinstate passenger rail services on the Belgrade–Trieste line, with ministers Aleksandra Sofronijević and Matteo Salvini discussing the project and also faster Schengen stays via Type D visas for Serbian professional drivers. Energy & Industry: Serbia’s energy ministry says six companies have expressed interest in building the reversible hydropower plant Djerdap 3, a project valued at over EUR 2.63bn, aimed at adding “natural battery” storage capacity. Business Climate: PM Djuro Macut held consultations with key ministries to accelerate Serbia’s Reform Agenda, including progress on EU Cluster 3 and a new support package for small businesses. Agri-Food: Serbia’s berry sector is shifting toward fresh-market varieties as growers adopt modern genetics and adjust to milder winters and fewer chilling hours. Regional Trade Links: Serbia’s international economic cooperation minister Nenad Popović said the country has strong potential to deepen ties with BRICS partners, highlighted at Innoprom in Russia. Local Economy Tools: eKapija is launching a network of local economic and investment portals for Serbian towns and municipalities to boost visibility of projects, procurement and grants.

Energy & Infrastructure: Serbia’s Ministry of Mining and Energy says six companies have expressed interest in building the reversible hydropower plant RHPP Djerdap 3, a project valued at over EUR 2.63bn, with the process run under a Serbia–US intergovernmental setup. Oil & Sanctions: Dubravka Djedović Handanović says the US extended NIS operating and MOL-related talks licences to July 31, calling it a “positive signal” for completing negotiations despite the sanctions context. Industry & Agrifood: Bankom completed a major soybean processing expansion in Belgrade, adding hexane extraction and a textured soy protein plant (TSP) due to start commercial production in September, boosting capacity to serve plant-based ingredient demand. EU Accession Watch: The European Commission’s push to open Serbia’s Cluster 3 is back in focus after Belgrade repealed controversial judiciary reforms, but diplomats say member-state divisions remain. Local Business Ecosystem: eKapija launched a network of local economic and investment portals so every Serbian town and municipality has its own business portal for projects, procurement, grants and real estate. Construction Prep: HIP Petrohemija Pancevo is tendering soil testing and construction-waste categorization work ahead of new propylene purification and polypropylene production capacities.

Energy & Sanctions: Serbia’s mining and energy minister said the latest US OFAC extensions for NIS operations and for MOL-Gazprom talks on a Russian stake give “a positive signal” and another chance to finish negotiations by July 31. Agri-Food Manufacturing: Bankom completed a major soybean processing expansion in Serbia, adding 400 tonnes/day capacity plus a textured soy protein plant (20,000 tonnes/year) due to start commercial production in September. AI & Innovation Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Marko Đurić said Serbia will keep investing in responsible AI, with AIability 2026 set to become an annual Belgrade meeting for academia, industry and policymakers. Transport Infrastructure Benchmark: An ITF report ranked Azerbaijan top among 32 countries for transport infrastructure investment as a share of GDP, noting Serbia among those investing over 2% in network upgrades. EU Integration Gap: A wiiw analysis warns Western Balkans countries may need decades to catch EU standards, with digitalization fastest and infrastructure/environment lagging most. Film Industry (Regional): CineLink Sarajevo published its Co-Production Market and Drama lineups, including a new €10,000 award, with Serbian projects among the selections. Construction Update: A concrete pour for the Veterans Memorial Bridge deck in Mankato was rescheduled to July 9 due to weather, with temporary road closures planned.

Logistics Expansion: Post of Serbia plans a major logistics and warehouse complex at Constantine the Great Airport in Niš, aiming to speed deliveries across southern Serbia and the Western Balkans. Road Building: Serbia redirected about EUR 10m (1.174bn dinars) to continue the Raca–Bijeljina highway works, part of the E-761 Belgrade–Sarajevo corridor. Expressway Timeline: Vojvodina Smile to Kljajicevo on the expressway is targeted for completion by end-June 2028, with major structures including interchanges and bridges. Energy & Industry Policy: Serbia’s international economic cooperation minister says Serbia will not impose sanctions on Russia, citing energy dependence and industrial sovereignty. AI & Innovation: Foreign Minister Marko Đurić says Serbia will push responsible AI development via AIability 2026, with Belgrade set to host the conference annually. Mining & Metals: MinRex Resources, newly focused on Serbia after a merger, highlights team build-out around its Tlamino gold project. Manufacturing Supply Chain: Serbia-based production is set to supply nanotubes for batteries for Volkswagen electric vehicles. Governance & Transparency: A Belgrade-area citizen initiative seeks tighter rules on local spending and more transparency in tax impacts.

Mining & Leadership: MinRex (reinvented after a merger) is building out its Serbia team for the Tlamino gold push, adding an exploration manager and general counsel as it positions for asset value growth. Logistics & Infrastructure: Post of Serbia plans a major logistics and warehouse complex at Constantine the Great Airport in Niš, aiming to speed deliveries across southern Serbia and the Western Balkans. Road Building: Serbia redirected 1.174bn dinars to continue the Raca–Bijeljina highway works, while Vojvodina Smile expressway sections are targeted for completion by June 2028. Industry & Environment: The government adopted a Draft Law on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control, moving integrated permits toward simplification and digital issuance aligned with EU rules. Energy & Tech: EPS joined the Data Center Association of Serbia, and OCSiAl will supply carbon nanotubes from its Serbian plant for Volkswagen’s PowerCo battery operations. Construction Finance: Energoprojekt Holding is set for a forced buyout after a controlling shareholder crossed the 90% threshold.