AGP Executive Report

Telecom & AI: Telekom Srbija is rolling out SAS Customer Intelligence 360, SAS Intelligent Decisioning and SAS Viya to unify campaign management and deliver more personalized, real-time marketing for its 8+ million customers. Mining & Finance: Chinese-owned Zijin Copper says it sold 17.005 tons of gold to Serbia’s National Bank from 2019 to mid-2026, with the NBS holding a right of first refusal on domestically produced gold. Energy & Industry: NIS is pushing for a new operating license, stressing it is key to keeping Serbia’s fuel supply stable and protecting refinery operations at Pančevo. Infrastructure & Engineering: Bechtel describes Serbia’s Morava Corridor motorway as a “single integrated system,” designed around flood behavior and built as Serbia’s first digital corridor with intelligent traffic systems. Trade & Consumer Impact: Serbia’s role as a key source market shows up in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s VAT refund data, with foreign shoppers (including from Serbia) driving consumer-goods demand. Tech Diplomacy: Serbia and Azerbaijan are advancing cooperation talks, with IT, artificial intelligence and energy flagged as areas with “great potential.” Climate Pressure: Wildfires and heatwave conditions across France and Spain are escalating again, with the UN warning the climate crisis is reaching emergency levels.

Serbia–China Tech Push: Serbian and Chinese officials pledged deeper cooperation in AI, green technology and innovation at a Belgrade conference, with China positioning itself as a major investor across mining, manufacturing, energy and transport. Serbia Startup Breakthrough: Insurtech Ominimo raised a Series B valuing it at $1.6bn, making Serbia’s first unicorn and expanding plans across more EU markets and the US. Energy & Industry Stress Test: Record-low Danube levels are hitting Serbia’s biggest hydropower plant, cutting output by about a third and raising concerns for river traffic and fuel imports. Infrastructure Resilience: Bechtel highlights Serbia’s Morava Corridor motorway as a “single integrated system” built around flood behavior, including 79 bridges and a digital traffic layer. Trade Signals: Serbia’s US tariff situation is in focus, with reports that Serbia met criteria for removal and that the US suspended 35% tariffs on Serbian goods. SME Support (Bulgaria–Serbia): The RESCALE project opens applications for SMEs in Bulgaria, funded under the Bulgaria–Serbia programme and implemented with Serbia’s chamber and Niš science park. Regional Context: Eurostat data shows Western Balkans economies remain heavy on construction and agriculture, while tech and industry shares lag behind EU averages.

AI & Green Tech Diplomacy: Serbia and China pledged deeper cooperation in AI, green technology and innovation at a Belgrade conference, with officials framing the shift from “mining copper and gold” to “data mining.” Startup & Finance: Insurtech Ominimo said it became Serbia’s first unicorn after a Series B that valued it at $1.6bn, with EBRD’s venture arm among investors and plans to expand across Europe and the US. US Trade Relief: Serbia’s President Vucic said the US temporarily lifted 35% tariffs on Serbian goods, moving them to zero then toward 10–12%, calling it a boost for investment. Energy & Logistics Shock: Record-low Danube levels are cutting navigation and fuel imports, with Serbia’s fuel import delivery reported at just 25% of target for July and hydropower output falling sharply. SME Support (Balkan Link): Bulgaria launched the RESCALE programme for SMEs in northwestern and southwestern regions, funded under the Bulgaria–Serbia INTERREG framework and focused on internationalisation, digitalisation and the green economy. Food & Industry Pressure from Heat: A Europe-wide look at hotter conditions highlights impacts on dairy, wine regions and crop zones, plus rising cold-chain costs. Public Health & Air Quality: Eurostat data ranks Albania fourth in Europe for premature deaths linked to PM2.5, underscoring the Western Balkans’ air-pollution burden.

Tariffs Relief for Industry: Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic says the US has temporarily lifted 35% tariffs on Serbian goods, with rates dropping to zero immediately and later settling around 10–12%, a move he links to renewed investment interest. Energy & Shipping Shock from Drought: Record-low Danube levels are cutting Serbia’s hydropower output—Djerdap 1 is down to about one-third of normal production—and forcing fuel imports to hit only 25% of July targets as barges and tankers run at 30–40% capacity. Logistics Automation in Retail: Hai Robotics completed a rapid deployment for LPP Logistics near Bucharest, installing 948 robots (278 case-handling ACRs and 670 AMRs) to scale ecommerce fulfilment across Serbia and the region. EU Sanctions Twist: Brussels made a U-turn on luxury Russian furs, allowing continued imports of Russian sable pelts via exemptions, highlighting how EU sanctions can shift under pressure from member states. Labour Crunch in the Region: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s foreign work-permit quota is exhausted by May, with manufacturers, construction and hospitality urging authorities to scrap quotas to ease staffing shortages. Security & Industry Risk: A report on the DevMan ransomware-as-a-service platform describes a centralized portal for affiliates, raising concerns for industrial and logistics operators exposed to cyber threats.

Danube Drought Hits Serbia’s Power and Shipping: Serbia’s Djerdap 1 hydropower plant is down to about one-third of normal output as record-low Danube levels cut fuel imports to roughly 25% of July targets and force barges to run at 30–40% capacity, with knock-on effects at coal-fired Kostolac cooling systems. Energy Supply Risk: EPS and the energy ministry warn conditions may worsen into early August, even as forecasts point to only limited inflows. Belgrade Growth Planning: Serbia’s government coordination council, chaired by PM Djuro Macut, reviewed industrial production (with focus on energy and processing), foreign direct investment, and agriculture measures to fight African swine fever. Industry and Trade Links: Vucic discussed Serbia–Uzbekistan cooperation with Mirziyoyev, highlighting potential joint projects in industry, agriculture and modern technologies. Logistics Expansion: Austrian Post said it is pushing parcel-network growth, a model that matters for regional delivery capacity and e-commerce fulfillment. Cybersecurity Watch: A report details the DevMan ransomware-as-a-service portal, showing how affiliates manage builds, victim chats and payouts—another reminder of the operational risks facing industrial supply chains.

Danube Drought Hits Industry: Serbia’s Djerdap 1 hydropower plant is down to about one-third of normal output as record-low Danube levels disrupt navigation, fuel imports and cooling at other plants like Kostolac. Energy Supply Pressure: Serbia’s fuel imports reportedly fell to just 25% of the July target, with barges and tankers running at 30–40% capacity. Shipping and Tourism Disrupted: Low water levels have stranded boats and exposed riverbanks and wrecks, raising risks for inland transport and fisheries. Government Focus on Growth: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut chaired a GDP-growth coordination council, spotlighting industrial production (especially energy and processing), investment climate and agriculture, including measures against African swine fever. Serbia–Uzbekistan Trade Talks: Vucic discussed boosting bilateral trade and investment with Uzbekistan, including cooperation in industry, agriculture and modern technologies. Logistics Tech in the Region: LPP Logistics is deploying 948 Hai Robotics robots for e-commerce fulfillment across Southeastern Europe. EU/Regulatory Context: Serbia’s judicial reform rollback continues to draw EU scrutiny, with Brussels framing it as a lesson for wider regional governance.

Danube Drought Hits Industry: Serbia’s Djerdap 1 hydropower is down to about a third of normal output as record-low Danube levels cut fuel imports to just 25% of July targets and force barges and tankers to run at 30–40% capacity, with knock-on effects already seen at coal-fired Kostolac cooling systems. Construction Safety & Transparency: A Belgrade bridge project resumed after a crane collapse killed a Chinese worker, but questions remain over equipment ownership and wider patterns of fatal accidents and weak transparency in Chinese-backed projects across the region. Energy Policy Focus: Serbia’s government council chaired by PM Djuro Macut reviewed industrial production, investment and competitiveness, with special attention to agriculture and measures to combat African swine fever. Trade & Investment Links: Vucic discussed Serbia–Uzbekistan cooperation with a focus on industry, agriculture and modern technologies, while Serbia also pushed progress on US tariff removal criteria. Logistics Innovation: LPP Logistics deployed 948 Hai Robotics robots for e-commerce fulfillment across Southeastern Europe, signaling continued automation in regional warehousing. AI Governance Spotlight: Serbia’s wider tech ecosystem gets a boost from global AI governance momentum after WAIC wrapped in Shanghai, with calls for broader access to advanced AI products. Parcel Network Expansion: Austrian Post hit its 3,000th outlet and plans further growth in Serbia-relevant logistics corridors via denser pickup/drop-off infrastructure.

Energy & Transport: Serbia’s biggest hydropower plant, Djerdap 1, is down to about a third of normal output as record-low Danube levels bite into power generation and river traffic. EPS says it’s producing around 5,000 MWh/day, while low water also forces barges and tankers to run at just 30–40% capacity and hits cooling at coal-fired Kostolac. Construction & Labor Oversight: A Belgrade bridge project has resumed after a crane collapse killed a Chinese worker, but questions remain over who owned the equipment—raising transparency and labor-practice concerns around state-backed Chinese builds. Industry Policy: PM Djuro Macut chaired a GDP-growth coordination council focused on industrial production (especially energy and processing), investment and business conditions, plus agriculture measures to tackle African swine fever. Logistics Automation: LPP Logistics’ new e-commerce fulfillment center near Bucharest uses 948 Hai Robotics units to support Serbia and the wider region’s garment supply chains. Energy Security: Serbia and the US signed an energy-infrastructure MoU pointing to gas interconnectors and about 300 million cubic metres of US gas per year, as Serbia’s NIS ownership transition nears its final phase.

Fuel & Logistics Shock: Record-low Danube levels are leaving boats beached and cutting Serbia’s petroleum product imports to about 25% of plan for July, with barges running at just 30–40% capacity; officials say the Pančevo refinery is key to keeping supply stable. Energy Policy: Serbia’s ministry approved oil firms’ requests to draw on operational euro-diesel reserves as river constraints bite, while work continues to extend NIS’s operating licence beyond July 31. Industry & Growth Planning: Serbian PM Djuro Macut chaired a GDP-growth council session focused on industrial output (especially energy and processing), investment climate, and agriculture measures to fight African swine fever. EU-Backed Finance: UniCredit Bank Serbia launched a €43mn KfW- and EU-backed credit line for energy efficiency and renewables for SMEs and larger firms. Trade & Investment Diplomacy: Czech PM Andrej Babiš led a business delegation to Belgrade to boost ties in infrastructure, defence, transport, healthcare and advanced tech. Regional Business Tech: LPP Logistics deployed 948 Hai Robotics robots at a Bucharest-area e-commerce fulfilment centre serving Serbia and the wider region. Water & Environment: Low Danube is also exposing historic wrecks and raising long-term wildlife concerns.

Energy & Transport: Low Danube water levels are disrupting Serbia’s river navigation and cutting petroleum product imports to about 25% of plan, pushing up costs and raising pressure on fuel supplies; officials say NIS’s Pančevo refinery is key to stability and Serbia is allowing use of operational diesel reserves while extending the refinery licence beyond July 31. EU-aligned Finance: UniCredit Bank Serbia and KfW with EU backing launched a €43mn green credit line (plus €4.3mn EU grant channel) for Serbian businesses and public-sector entities to fund energy efficiency and renewables, including rooftop solar and lower-carbon fuel conversions. Industry & Investment Ties: Czech PM Andrej Babiš led a business delegation to Belgrade to deepen cooperation in infrastructure, defence, transport, healthcare and advanced technologies, citing €2.3bn trade and proposing stronger joint committee coordination ahead of Expo 2027. Logistics Automation: LPP Logistics deployed 948 Hai Robotics robots at a Bucharest-area e-commerce fulfilment centre, supporting 625,000+ storage locations and capacity for 7.5m garments across Serbia and the wider region. Agribusiness: Moldova’s apricot and peach output is up versus last year, with improved export quality driven by anti-frost and irrigation investments—an angle that matters for regional fruit supply chains. Security & Tech Infrastructure: Serbia reported GNSS signal jamming/spoofing incidents affecting commercial flights, underlining risks for transport, telecoms and industrial systems that rely on accurate positioning.

Czech-Serbia Business Push: Czech PM Andrej Babiš led a business delegation to Belgrade to deepen investment ties, with talks covering infrastructure, defence, transport, healthcare, aviation and energy; Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut reiterated EU accession should be merit-based. Energy & Fuel Security: Low Danube water levels are cutting river capacity to 30–40% and delaying petroleum product imports, prompting Serbia to release operational euro-diesel reserves and seek licence extensions for NIS’s Pančevo refinery. Green Finance for Industry: UniCredit Serbia launched a €43mn KfW-backed, EU-supported credit line for energy efficiency and renewables for SMEs and larger firms, aligning with EU rules and carbon-border pressures. Banking Deal Watch: RBI reached the acceptance threshold in its Addiko takeover bid, but the contest with NLB remains active as shareholders can still switch until July 23. Trade & Jobs Signals: Serbia’s labour market shows 14.5% of workers on fixed-term contracts (above the EU average), while Kosovo’s trade deficit widened 16.1% in June. Logistics & Infrastructure: Works continue on key highway sections in Semberija, supporting faster regional connectivity for exporters. Space Tech Link: Serbia signed the Artemis Accords, opening a path for institutes, scientists and industry to cooperate with NASA.

Aviation & Firefighting: Bridger Aerospace leased two Super Scoopers to Avincis for wildfire suppression in Portugal, marking Bridger’s first revenue-generating Europe operations under a contract running to mid-October. Corporate Calendar: Bridger set its Q2 2026 earnings release for Aug. 6, with a conference call scheduled the same day. Aerospace Deal Talks: Czech PM Andrej Babiš said Serbia is being considered as a buyer for Czech-made Aero L-39 Skyfox training aircraft, alongside broader cooperation in tech and healthcare. Infrastructure & Construction: Works are underway on two sections of the future Sarajevo–Belgrade highway in Semberija, including a 17.7 km stretch toward Brčko District and an interchange in Brodac, aimed at easing exports and attracting investment. Energy & Industry Link: Serbia’s Marko Đurić signed the Artemis Accords at NASA HQ, positioning cooperation for Serbian institutes, scientists and industry in cutting-edge technologies. Trade & Business Dialogue: A Serbia–Czechia business roundtable in Belgrade will cover joint projects across metals, chemicals, construction, transport, food and banking, with trade up 4.3% in Jan–May 2026. Regulatory/Compliance: US forced-labor enforcement actions flagged copper products from Serbia and garments from Jordan in new Withhold Release Orders.

Energy Security & Refining: Serbia’s mining and energy minister said a renewed US operating licence for NIS would let the Pancevo refinery maximise output to offset disrupted petroleum product imports, with low Danube levels and higher costs leaving only about a quarter of July plans fulfilled. EU Finance & Infrastructure: President Aleksandar Vucic met an EBRD delegation and highlighted cooperation on sustainable infrastructure, energy, the green transition and energy efficiency, noting a new regional EBRD hub for Southeast Europe. Urban Development: Belgrade city council approved zoning for a 40-acre tract south of the city for roughly 230 housing units, aiming to mix residential with retail and office uses. Hydropower Projects: A Romania–Serbia MoU on Djerdap 3 pumped-storage hydropower was reported, alongside broader coverage of global hydropower refurbishment trends. Trade & Industry Links: Serbia’s “new China bet” and related concerns about China-backed transition minerals projects kept attention on how investment ties could affect EU accession paths. Packaging & Logistics Tech: BW Packaging and Crown Packaging announced a partnership to deliver integrated packaging automation and end-of-line solutions for manufacturers and logistics operators. Media Regulation: The European Commission cleared the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger with conditions tied to distribution partnerships in Europe. Public Safety & Transport: Separate reports covered Ryanair incidents, including a “minor technical issue” landing and a separate window-shattering event involving a Serbian passenger.

Serbia–US Energy Push: Serbia and the United States held their first Strategic Dialogue in Washington, with energy infrastructure and regional energy security among the key deliverables, alongside plans spanning telecoms, digitalisation, education and science. Djerdap 3 Hydropower: Serbia’s Mining and Energy Ministry published a tender for spatial planning and part of the technical documentation for the Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant Djerdap 3, with bids expected to address water-regime and navigation impacts and coordination with Romania. NIS Sanctions Watch: Serbia’s energy minister says it’s still unclear whether the US will extend OFAC licences for NIS (and MOL’s talks) beyond July 31, while Belgrade keeps dialogue open for a long-term solution. Logistics Deal: United Group agreed to sell Serbian courier and parcel operator D Express to Austrian Post, combining it with City Express and transferring assets like the Belgrade logistics centre and parcel locker network. Supply Chain & Automation: Nelt Group represented Serbia at China’s CISCE 2026 in Beijing, pitching logistics centre and automation capabilities and visiting Shandong Port Group facilities. Danube Grain Disruption: Heat is lowering the Danube, forcing Serbian grain exporters to cut ship loads and raising transport costs. Textile Water Tech: Serbian-linked research tested a flow electrochemical reactor to remove Reactive Black 5 dye from wastewater, aiming at more compact treatment for textile effluent. EU/Climate Pressure: Europe’s wildfires and drought are driving water restrictions, underlining operational risks for agriculture and logistics.

Parcel & Logistics Deal: United Group agreed to sell Serbian courier D Express to Austrian Post, combining D Express and City Express into a single operator with Belgrade logistics assets, 27 depots, 45 parcel shops and 300+ lockers, with closing expected late this year. Energy Infrastructure: Serbia’s Mining and Energy Ministry launched a tender for spatial planning and part of the technical documentation for the Djerdap 3 pumped-storage hydropower plant, valued at RSD625m, with a planned 1,200–2,400 MW capacity and required analysis of water regime, navigation and cross-border cooperation with Romania. Mining & Industry Management: Rio Tinto’s Serbia unit Rio Sava Exploration saw changes in legal representatives as the Jadar project stays in a care-and-maintenance phase. Textiles & Water Tech: Researchers with Serbian partners tested a flow electrochemical reactor to remove Reactive Black 5 dye from wastewater, reporting full decolourisation in 90 minutes and stable performance across multiple cycles—aimed at compact treatment for textile effluent. Energy Sanctions Watch: Serbia’s energy minister said OFAC licence extensions for NIS (and MOL talks) run to July 31, leaving the outcome of any Russian-stake acquisition and US approval uncertain. Drone/Defense Manufacturing: CSG plans serial production in the US for drone and unmanned-system jet engines via Firecrest Aerospace, with initial assembly targeted within months and full-scale production planned for 2027. Agrifood Trade Signal: EastFruit Trade Platform hit its highest activity level of 2026 in week 29, with watermelon topping offers and Serbian products returning after a gap.

Energy Diplomacy: Serbia’s Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic said OFAC may or may not extend NIS and MOL licences beyond July 31, with Washington holding the key role in finding a long-term solution for the Russian-majority stake. Textile Water Tech: South Ural State University and Serbian partners tested a flow electrochemical reactor that decolourises Reactive Black 5 dye in 90 minutes and keeps performance after 15 cycles—aimed at compact treatment for textile wastewater. Port & Electrical Engineering: Belgrade-based ICCE is expanding into port electrification and bulk/container handling, including BOXBAY work and shore-power opportunities, leveraging automation and electrical systems expertise. Agriculture Health: Serbia reports African swine fever in 52 communities across seven districts, with nearly 28,000 pigs dead or culled since the year began, triggering culls and tighter movement controls. Trade & Logistics Context: Türkiye says it held 152 high-level trade contacts with 57 countries in H1, including Serbia, while new natural gas import/export rules take effect in the region. Expo 2027 in Belgrade: Slovakia unveiled its Expo 2027 pavilion concept, “Tree of Opportunities,” and discussed cooperation with Serbian partners in IT, healthcare and energy. Infrastructure & Industry Risk: Danube water levels hit a 30-year low, disrupting tourism, ferry services and grain barges. Energy Storage Project: Serbia-US talks highlight Đerdap 3 pumped-storage as a “largest battery” concept, with an MoU on energy infrastructure and regional energy security. Aviation Safety Watch: Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary updated on the near-window incident, pointing to possible foreign object damage and a forthcoming report.